1912 vs Today
What would tariffs need to be today to fund the federal government on the 1912 revenue mix; the last time before the income tax? This is the revenue math applied to today's spending, not a forecast or recommendation.
1912: the last budget before the income tax
FY ended June 30, 1912In fiscal year 1912, the last full year before the 16th Amendment authorized a federal income tax, the government took in $692.6 million and spent $689.9 million; leaving the budget essentially balanced, and doing so without an income tax. Revenue came mostly from two sources: customs duties (tariffs) at 45%, and internal revenue via excise taxes, (chiefly on alcohol and tobacco) at 47%, with the remaining 8% from miscellaneous receipts.
What it funded
- War Department (Army)23.4%
- Navy Department19.7%
- Military pensions (mainly Civil War veterans)22.3%
- Other civil functions28.5%
- Interest on the public debt3.3%
- Indian affairs2.9%
No Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, federal student loans, or most modern civil agencies existed. Civil War veterans’ pensions were the largest civilian outlay.
Today, by fiscal year
FY2025 actuals| If you abolish… | Income tax replaced | Revenue needed | Tariffs would need to be |
|---|---|---|---|
| Individual income tax only | $2.66T | $4.81T | $2.16T |
| Individual + corporate income tax | $3.11T | $5.26T | $2.36T |
| Individual + corporate + payroll | $4.86T | $7.01T | $3.15T |
“Revenue needed” is total spending minus the income/payroll taxes you keep. The 1912 mix would split it 45% tariffs / 47% excise / 8% miscellaneous; the final column shows the tariff share. For the top row, that mix also implies excise of $2.24T (vs $105.9B today) and miscellaneous of $408.3B.
Today, trailing 12 months
Trailing 12 months through April 2026| If you abolish… | Income tax replaced | Revenue needed | Tariffs would need to be |
|---|---|---|---|
| Individual income tax only | $2.74T | $4.93T | $2.22T |
| Individual + corporate income tax | $3.13T | $5.32T | $2.39T |
| Individual + corporate + payroll | $4.93T | $7.12T | $3.20T |
“Revenue needed” is total spending minus the income/payroll taxes you keep. The 1912 mix would split it 45% tariffs / 47% excise / 8% miscellaneous; the final column shows the tariff share. For the top row, that mix also implies excise of $2.29T (vs $105.1B today) and miscellaneous of $418.4B.
This is the mathematical answer; what the revenue math requires to fund current spending on the 1912 mix. Whether tariffs at that level are achievable or desirable is a separate question this tool does not address, and 1912’s context differs from today’s. We present the math; you draw the conclusion. For sources and method, see our methodology page.